If you think it’s been a warm November, you’re right. According to the National Weather Service, temperatures have been above average for the entirety of fall. “It has been incredibly warm, September, October, to early November. It’s been a phenomenally warm fall,” says Jim Keysor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord.

Take heed, however: that’s about to change. “Friday [today] may be record-breaking, 65 to 70. That’s 25 degrees above normal. There’s a cold front moving through Friday night. Saturday there may be snowflakes in the air, accumulations in some areas. It will be in the 30s and 40s. It’s going to get colder into next week and beyond, be much more normal.”

The warm fall sure has made some people smile. “We’ve heard from some very cheerful folks in the hospitality industry, hotel and golf,” says Mike Norton of Traverse City Tourism, who himself took advantage of the weather to go hiking last weekend. “When people keep coming up long after we thought it (the tourist season) was shutting down, they go to restaurants and shops.”

Brian Lawson, public relations director at Crystal Mountain, says Crystal had golfers playing right up until the resort shut down its courses.

Not every area course followed suit; Chris Hale, executive vice president for sales and marketing at Shanty Creek Resorts, said his facility closed up its courses as usual in late October. “It was 60 degrees last week, but it could have been 34,” he says, adding that closing courses allows for aerating and prepping them to survive the winter.

Others worry about the big picture of 70-degree days in November. Kama Ross is a district forester with the Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Benzie Conservation Districts. She’s noted an uptick in insect and mold problems. “I definitely received more calls from landowners with intense scale infestations earlier in the spring and later in the fall than ever before,” she says. She adds she is hoping for a "normal" winter, with the usual cold temperatures and good snow cover, which will help the die-off of non-native insects and other pathogens.

The Weather Service’s Keysor believes it’s far too early to tie recent warm weather to global warming. “That’s a difficult question to answer. This is just a snapshot. I think what we are seeing the last ten or 15 years is the falls have gotten warmer and the springs cooler. Winter is arriving a little later and lingering a little later in the spring,” he says. “It’s too early to tell if it’s a (long-term) trend. Sometimes we see trends go (just) for a decade.”

Ann Rogers believes otherwise. The co-chair of the environmental group NMEAC says in her 50 years in the area she has seen the growing season lengthen and the area’s climatic zone designation change. “This is not an aberration,” she says. “This is the next hottest year on record, four in a row now.”

Keysor says he anticipates the weather this weekend will be the advent of a seasonal shift, though he does hedge his bets. “There may still be a little up and down. I don’t think we’re locked in to winter, but there’s no sign of this (record-breaking) warmth returning,” he says.

For their part, both Hale and Lawson say their resorts are ready for winter whenever it comes, with snowmaking equipment in place on the slopes and personnel ready to go. They say they don’t count on an early ski season, so neither is disappointed if the slopes don’t open on Thanksgiving. “We don’t plan to be open for ski and snowboard season until mid-December,” says Hale. “If it’s earlier, that’s great.”