Traverse City’s former Horizon Outlet Mall is likely headed for big changes, but nobody -- including Owner/Developer Jerry Snowden – knows exactly what’s coming.

Snowden has been pursuing new commercial tenants and improvements at the Garfield Township center since he purchased it via auction in fall 2012.

“The most likely reuse of the property will be a combination of big box stores, and there are [potential] tenants we’re talking to, but nothing’s a deal until it’s signed,” Snowden tells The Ticker.

Garfield Township Administrator Chuck Korn says the Township is currently taxing the center “essentially as vacant land,” because – except for Carmike Cinemas and Outback Steakhouse – the center is largely devoid of tenants. “I think it’s a fantastic location with great opportunity,” he adds, “and of course we’d like to see Jerry bring something significant in there.”

While Snowden works behind the scenes to likely attract big, new names to the Traverse City retail scene, The Ticker decided to tackle the question of what could – and “should” end up at the outlet mall. To contribute to our speculation, we asked readers and national retail expert and part-time Traverse City resident Jay Wedeven of The Strategic Edge.

Costco
Why It Could: The most widely speculated prospect, the national discount club retailer has been looking at the Traverse City market for years. Though the region’s population is low for their standard store profile, Traverse City draws shoppers from Cadillac, Gaylord, and the Upper Peninsula.
Why It Should: “Personally, I hope it’s Costco,” say both Wedeven (who adds he has to drive to Grand Rapids to use his Costco membership) and Korn.
Odds: 6-1

Other big box retailer(s) such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, HomeGoods, or Marshall’s
Why It Could: Traverse City’s rapid growth – particularly against the backdrop of a challenging Michigan economy – has caught the eye of some national retailers. Still, says Wedeven, “each of those would come in spite of existing competition here.”
Why It Should: Those big boxes mentioned do not have locations nearby, and a hungry shopping public has already demonstrated an appetite for the likes of TJ Maxx, Gander Mountain, and others.
Odds: 8-1

Trader Joe’s
Why It Could: The explosion of demand for healthy eating nationwide – and locally – has the company growing rapidly, though most new stores are opened in larger, metropolitan markets.
Why It Should: Locals are clamoring, as evidenced by the dozens of comments posted every time The Ticker references new retailers. Says Ticker reader Lindsey Chan, “I have been ordering some of my food from online grocers and that gets expensive! Four weeks ago I actually took a trip downstate just to go to a Trader Joe's and Whole Foods.”
Odds: 25-1

Mixed use redevelopment, including a hotel and/or residences
Why It Could: Snowden could pursue a Planned Unit Development (PUD) and build a hotel, affordable housing, or both. The combination with what’s already there could create that elusive synergy and pedestrian traffic that developers crave.
Why It Should: Despite several new and overhauled hotels in the region, the summer tourism season demands more hotel/motel rooms, while planners point to affordable housing as one of the region’s biggest needs.
Odds: 4-1

Snowden himself says the guessing game might be fun, but even he isn’t yet sure what will become of the center when the ink dries. “Everybody’s free to speculate! Until deals are done, it will be just that.”

Have an opinion or a preference? Comment below!