It’s been seven years since Traverse City Area Public Schools (TCAPS) saw an enrollment increase. Barring any unforeseen adjustments in the next few weeks, though, TCAPS will end the school year with more students than it had a year ago. It’s a small but significant milestone, and administrative leaders hope it means stabilization for the shrinking school district.

Enrollment at TCAPS has been on a steady downward slide since the beginning of the 2000s. 20 years ago, in the 2005-06 school year, TCAPS boasted an enrollment of 10,627, according to mischooldata.org. That number dipped below 10,000 for the first time in many years with the 2012-13 academic year, and fell below 9,000 in 2021-22. Out of the past 20 school years at TCAPS, only six have seen year-over-year enrollment growth.

The 2025-26 school year is about to be the seventh.

TCAPS recorded a preliminary enrollment of 8,820 students last October, during the first of two student count days administered each school year. That number was up a little less than 100 students from February 2025, when the count was 8,723. In Michigan, a school district’s official enrollment number is determined by taking 90 percent of the October count and adding 10 percent of the February count. Based on that calculation, TCAPS is projected to have a count of 8,810 students for the 2026 fiscal year – up from 8,770 in 2025.

“It’s definitely a steadying of the trend,” says TCAPS Superintendent John VanWagoner. “Close to the end of the school year, we'll get actual audited numbers, but everything we have seen so far shows we’re somewhere between 25 and 30 students above where we were last year.”

Ty Schmidt, a TCAPS Board of Education trustee who campaigned on the issue of declining enrollment, says even a small uptick represents a big win for the district.

“Obviously, because of the way schools are funded, enrollment has big financial implications,” Schmidt notes. Between the increase in students this year and a higher per-pupil funding rate at the state level, TCAPS projected in January that it could see nearly $4.4 million more in state funding for the 2026 fiscal year than it did in 2025.

According to VanWagoner, TCAPS keeps a close eye on things like birth rates and local demographics, to have a sense of where enrollment trends are pointing.

“All of the data from that standpoint tells us enrollment numbers will continue to go down – and those trends are in line with birth rates across the country and the state of Michigan, which, holistically, are just lower than they used to be,” the superintendent says. “We’re really beating the trend just staying the same.”

Holding steady – or growing slightly – means the district stays right-sized, something VanWagoner says should set parents’ minds at ease about potential school building closures in the future. At its enrollment peak in the 1990s, TCAPS had no fewer than 18 elementary schools. Today, the district is down to 11, following a rash of closures between the early 2000s and the late 2010s. With enrollment being what it is, VanWagoner says there are no foreseeable plans to downsize further.

“We’re actually at a really good spot,” he says. “With all of our programs, which include some partnerships with the ISD and some special education rooms, we're really solid from [the school building] standpoint.”

The last time TCAPS saw an enrollment increase rather than a decline was 2019, before nearly every public school district in Michigan took a nosedive during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I think that was a little bit of a perfect storm,” VanWagoner says of that period, pointing to everything from a nationwide uptick in homeschooling to Michigan’s declining birth rates finally catching up with schools.

It’s not just K-12 districts experiencing the slump, either.

“One of the things that's interesting is we're seeing four-year universities in Michigan really feeling the pinch, too, because there are just so many fewer kids in the state,” VanWagoner notes. At Central Michigan University, for instance, enrollment dropped to 14,171 in 2025 – down from 25,528 at its all-time peak in 2015.

So, why is TCAPS bucking the trend? And could this anomaly year build into a new pattern of incremental growth?

VanWagoner says “establishing junior kindergarten in all of our elementary buildings” is likely the biggest growth factor. “It means we basically have 14 grades now, versus 13,” he tells The Ticker.

VanWagoner also sees opportunities to continue growing programming for younger kids. In preparing for the reconstruction of Central Grade School – which will kick off this fall – VanWagoner says the district has invested substantially in improving the former Glenn Loomis Elementary building to host Central Grade students during the rebuild.

“Our intent in the future is actually to build Glenn Loomis into an early childhood center where we could have more infant, toddler, and preschool programming, because we know that’s so needed in our community,” VanWagoner says. “The Central reconstruction will be about a three-year process, but after that, [Glenn Loomis] will be able to be utilized for this other purpose. We're excited for that.”

In Schmidt’s view, having more things to offer at TCAPS – whether it’s expanded early childhood programming, new investments like the Innovation and Manufacturing Centers at Central and West high schools, or beloved value-adds like arts and athletics – plays heavily into the enrollment equation.

“In our finance committee meetings, I talk a lot about enrollment as something at least partially within our control,” Schmidt says. “Birth rates, not in our control. Housing costs, not in our control. Demographics, not in our control. But providing a wide variety of opportunities for families, meeting student needs, getting serious about goals around student achievement and mental health, retaining quality teachers: These things are in our control. Our job is to make TCAPS the best choice for families who live in our district.”