Despite what Munson Healthcare Chief Medical Officer Dr. Christine Nefcy described as a brief “respite” this week as testing positivity percentages and hospitalizations creep down locally, healthcare experts are bracing for a difficult winter ahead as the Omicron variant takes over as the dominant variant in the U.S.

Munson leaders say the variant, which appears to be three to five times as contagious as Delta and accounted for 73 percent of new cases nationwide last week, could overwhelm healthcare systems and cause school districts to move to remote learning. President Joe Biden announced Tuesday he is marshalling federal resources to fight the variant, including providing 500 million free rapid tests to Americans, setting up federal testing sites, and deploying emergency response teams to states including Michigan.

Nefcy said Michigan remains a national “hot spot” for COVID-19, though she noted both testing positivity rates and hospitalizations are down this week locally. “Today we are at a 16.7 percent positivity rate…that is down from where we’ve been the last two weeks,” she said. Munson currently has 103 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (pictured, graphic), down from a recent peak of 146. Of those 103 patients, 82 are unvaccinated and 21 are vaccinated. Unvaccinated individuals also account for 33 of the 36 patients in intensive care and all 18 patients on ventilators.

Nefcy said the emergence of Omicron will likely soon reverse the region’s current downward trend.

“While this may be a respite, it’s likely to be short-lived,” she said, adding she expected to see numbers “go right back up again” as the new variant spreads across Michigan. That’s because the variant is significantly more transmissible than Delta and also appears to be more resistant to vaccines, though Nefcy said that “being fully vaccinated with a booster” appears to be the most effective protection. While Omicron has only been detected so far in eight Michigan counties – all downstate – Munson infectious disease specialist Dr. Christopher Ledtke said “it's likely that the true burden of Omicron” is much higher across the state.

Munson officials expressed concern about Traverse City Area Public Schools’ (TCAPS’) decision this week to move ahead with lifting a universal masking mandate in the new year. “I appreciate the TCAPS school board: They work hard, they're volunteers, they had difficult decisions to make,” said Ledtke. “We’ve given our input. I think that now is not a good time to cut back on masking.” He noted that board members had cited the availability of vaccines for children as a chief factor in their decision, but said the local vaccination uptake for ages 5-11 is “fairly poor” at just over 29 percent.

“I think that the level of transmission in schools could get really bad,” Ledtke said, predicting that in the coming weeks schools will have to grapple with whether to transition to remote instruction. Sixteen pediatricians from the Grand Traverse Children’s Clinic, Kids Creek Children’s Clinic, and Traverse Area Pediatric and Adolescent Clinic also sent a letter to TCAPS board members urging them to continue requiring masks.

Munson officials noted Tuesday that the severity of illness produced by Omicron is not yet fully understood. Ledtke, however, said he was troubled by data that showed the variant appeared to have shorter incubation periods, was resistant to several monoclonal antibody therapies, and produced an average of 3-3.5 new cases per infected individual, a figure he called “very high.” Even if illnesses are milder with Omicron, its transmissibility could lead to so many infections that healthcare systems could be overwhelmed, particularly if hospital staff become infected and have to miss work, Ledtke said. He predicted “the next two, three, four weeks in particular are going to be very challenging for our country.”

In response to the spread of Omicron, both President Joe Biden and Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced measures Tuesday to attempt to combat the disease spread. In an address to the nation, Biden said he would make 500 million free rapid tests available to the public. The tests are expected to be available in January, with Americans soon able to go to a federal website to sign up for tests to be sent to their homes. The president also said that new federal testing sites will be established across the country, starting by Christmas in the hard-hit New York City. The federal government will use the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of tests, direct 1,000 military doctors and nurses to help overburdened hospitals, and deploy six emergency response teams comprised of more than 100 health professionals and paramedics to Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Vermont, according to Biden.

Whitmer announced Tuesday she is setting a statewide goal to have one million more Michiganders, including 95 percent of eligible nursing home residents, receive a COVID-19 booster by January 31. “We know from preliminary data that the booster offers more robust protection against Omicron,” Whitmer said. According to state data, 62.4 percent of eligible Michigan residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine, while 56.8 percent are fully vaccinated. More than two million booster doses have been administered across Michigan.

According to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, individuals who were unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated represented 85.1 percent of COVID-19 cases, 88.1 percent of hospitalizations, and 85.5 percent of deaths between January 3 and December 15 this year.

The virulence of Omicron could make 2022 the third straight pandemic year where local cases top the previous year. In 2020, Munson had 778 total cases across its healthcare system, including 404 cases at the Traverse City hospital. In 2021, those numbers rose to 2,338 total cases across the Munson system, including 1,152 cases at the Traverse City hospital – increases of 201 percent and 185 percent respectively.

Grand Traverse County Health Department data shows a similar climb in cases from 2020 to 2021. Grand Traverse County had 2,959 COVID-19 cases and 50 deaths in 2020. Those numbers increased to 8,901 cases and 119 deaths in 2021 as of Tuesday. “The primary concern right now regarding Omicron is all the unknowns...everything we do now will be riskier since Omicron is more contagious,” says Health Officer Wendy Hirschenberger. She says personal mitigation efforts will be “crucial” in the coming weeks and months, noting that “people will have to determine what level of risk they are willing to take, for not only themselves, but for their friends and family as well, as this is an infectious disease that is easily spread.”